Donald Trump Suffers Major Blow in Top Election Forecast
The former president fell below a 40 percent chance of winning the election in the latest update to FiveThirtyEight's forecast model.
Explore The Ways Trump Or Harris Could Win The 2024 Election
Use our "what-if" tool to pick a winner in each state and see how it would change 538's 2024 presidential election forecast.
Election 2024: Latest polling shows Harris extending lead over Trump
We’re less than 50 days out from the 2024 presidential election and for weeks, the polls have shown Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead — albeit a slim one — over former President Donald Trump.
Election 2024: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Polls and Odds
U.S. presidential election campaign is one of the closest races in recent history. Initially, polls showed former President Donald Trump holding a consistent lead over incumbent President Joe Biden, with margins typically ranging from 2-4 percentage points.
US election polls: Who is ahead - Harris or Trump?
Voters in the US go to the polls on 5 November to elect their next president. The election was initially a rematch of 2020 but it was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris.
Latest presidential election polls: Harris vs Trump
Find out who is leading the 2024 US election polls with real-time updates on polling data, key issues and swing states here
Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania — and two bellwether PA counties — exclusive poll finds
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania by 3 percentage points thanks to a major advantage with women voters, a USA TODAY poll found.
Poll bombshells: Harris beats Trump on the economy--and could flip Florida?!
New poll numbers since the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are showing Harris surging linked to issues such as the economy and abortion.
Kamala Harris Lands Good Sign in Must-Win State, Poll Shows
While Pennsylvania may be considered a must-win state by both Harris and Trump, the candidates each have alternative paths to victory by winning a combination of several other nec
2024 presidential election odds: Harris leads over Trump after assassination attempt foiled
Vice President Kamala Harris has held her lead over former President Donald Trump among bettors as the reaction to their debate settled and in the aftermath of a foiled assassination plot against Trump.
New poll indicates whether Harris or Trump has the edge in the most important battleground
A new poll conducted after last week's debate shows Vice President Kamala Harris holding a three-point edge over former President Trump in Pennsylvania, arguably the most important battleground state
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How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump
Empirically, based on how well it would have done in the 2000-2020 presidential elections, the new 538 forecast is well ... There's a large map in front of you, and you need to point to the ...
Nate Silver: If Trump Loses, He Will Have Let Election 'Slip Out Of His Grasp' As Underlying Factors Favor Him Despite Harris' Poll Lead
Despite nationwide polls pointing to a slight edge for Kamala Harris in the presidential race, prominent polling data analyst ...
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Trump Campaign Manager Accuses ABC’s 538 Election Model of Being a ‘Suppression Tool Used by the Media’
Donald Trump’s campaign manager used a Semafor report on issues with ABC News’ 538 election model to take a shot at the entire prediction effort, labeling it “a suppression tool” and ...
Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast
"what-if" interactive lets you pick the winner of each state and see how it would shift the range of outcomes in our 2024 presidential election forecast.
Nate Silver slammed over Trump election model — but forecasters "all saying roughly the same thing”
Election prediction models are not like polls — and Silver's Trump odds are not all that different from others ...
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FiveThirtyEight founder on election odds: It's a high-stakes moment
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight founder, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the upcoming 2024 presidential election, election odds, risk-taking this election, and more. Watch Katy Perry’s Gravity ...
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Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...